NSE shares: Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan Overweight on exchange stock, see up to 30% upside potential; Check target price

Two global brokerages initiate NSE coverage

Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan have begun covering the National Stock Exchange of India with Overweight ratings, according to reports dated 2 November 2026. Morgan Stanley set a target price of ₹2,315 per share, suggesting roughly 30% upside from the previous Friday's close. JPMorgan assigned a target of ₹2,130, implying nearly 20% upside. Despite these calls, NSE shares traded broadly flat on the day.

The investment case rests on India's financialisation story. Both brokerages expect rising retail participation, growing SIP contributions and household savings shifting into equities to benefit the exchange. Morgan Stanley projects revenue and normalised profit after tax to grow at about 15% CAGR between FY27 and FY29, after a softer 6% normalised PAT CAGR over FY24-FY27. It notes normalised profits grew 19% CAGR over 14 years and 25% over the past decade. JPMorgan expects adjusted PAT to compound around 14% over FY27-FY29, with return on equity improving from 32.5% to 34.5%.

Why it matters for market participants

NSE's dominance is central to the thesis. It holds over 90% of cash equities and nearly all single-stock futures and options trading. Its index options share, however, has fallen from about 90% in November 2024 to roughly 66% in September 2026 after BSE's entry and SEBI regulatory changes. JPMorgan views the current share as sustainable, with notional shares of the two exchanges converging near 50%.

The exchange's asset-light model is highlighted, with normalised operating EBITDA margin at 76.2% in FY26. Morgan Stanley assumes a payout ratio of about 60% over FY27-FY29. JPMorgan points to diversified revenue: non-transaction income rose from 14.2% of total revenue in FY23 to 22.3% in FY26, spanning trading, clearing, settlement, index services, colocation and market data. It values NSE at 40 times estimated core earnings for September 2028, plus its NSDL stake.

What to watch going forward

Index options remain …